Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction: Who Takes Game 5?

The Western Conference heats up with a pivotal Game 5 tonight! The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena (10:30 PM ET) with the series tied 2-2. The Nuggets enter as slight favorites (-4 points) with home-court advantage on their side. Can Nikola Jokic lead Denver to victory, or will the Timberwolves steal a win on the road? The over/under for total points sits at 205.5, hinting at a high-scoring battle. This Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction is a must-read before tonight’s!

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction

BET	DEN	MIN
Moneyline	+121	-144
Spread	+2.5	-2.5
Total	204.5

Game Information

Date: Tuesday, May 14th 10:30 ET
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver CO
Free Live Stream: LiveSports.watch

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Betting Prediction

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have an O/U record of 37-52-2 this season, with the over hitting in their last two games. Their games average a combined score of 223.1 points, compared to today’s line of 205.5. Denver’s ATS record is 42-47, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. At home, they are 22-23 ATS and have failed to cover in four straight home games. Against Western Conference teams, the Nuggets are 33-19 and 24-6 against non-conference opponents. In the West, they are currently in 2nd place with a 57-25 record. Favored by 4 points today, the Nuggets have a record of 56-22 as the favorite, being favored in 78 of their 82 games. Their ATS record as the favorite is 34-42. In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets won 115-107, covering the spread as 3.5-point underdogs.

This season, the Nuggets rank 15th in scoring at 114.9 points per game and 11th at home with 116.5 points per contest. They are 4th in the NBA rankings in field goal percentage at 49% but near the bottom in free throw and three-point attempts. Nikola Jokic has averaged 26.4 points, 8.4 assists, and 13 rebounds in his last five games, hitting 35.9% of his threes. Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 2.8 made threes per game over his last five games, and Jamal Murray has averaged 20 points but is questionable with a calf injury.

Defensively, the Nuggets rank 5th in points allowed per game at home with 108.2 and 6th overall at 109.1. Over their last five games, they have allowed just 103 points per game, the 4th best in the NBA. Denver excels at defending the three-point line, ranking 2nd in both three-point percentage allowed at 35.2% and three-point attempts allowed per game at 31.4.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota has gone 13-10 as the underdog this season and is 15-8 ATS in that role. They have covered the spread in four straight games as the underdog and are on a four-game winning streak on the road. With an average NBA betting lines differential of +5.5 points per game, they are 30-15 on the road this season. The Timberwolves’ O/U record for the season is 47-43, with the over hitting in their last two games. Their games average 218.9 points, compared to today’s O/U line of 205.5. In their last game against the Nuggets, Minnesota lost 115-107, failing to cover the spread as 3.5-point favorites. Overall, Minnesota is 56-26 this season, good for 3rd place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 37-15 and 19-11 in non-conference games.

Minnesota looks to avoid their third straight ATS loss after going 2-0 as the favorite. As the underdog, they are 31-35 ATS and 46-43 ATS overall this season. The Timberwolves average 113 points per game, ranking 18th. They score slightly better on the road, averaging 114.1 points compared to 111.4 at home. Minnesota is 8th in field goal percentage, connecting on 48% of their shots, and 2nd in three-point shooting at 38%. Anthony Edwards has been carrying the offense, averaging 34.6 points over his last five games, hitting 59.6% of his shots and 47.5% of his threes. Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 58.3% of his threes in his last five games, averaging 2.8 threes per game.

Defensively, the Timberwolves are the best in the league, allowing just 106.2 points per game. They are equally stingy on the road, giving up 108.6 points per contest. Minnesota excels at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.9% from beyond the arc. In 76.8% of their games, they have held opponents to fewer made threes than their season average. Overall, opposing teams have shot just 45.3% from the field against Minnesota, the 2nd best mark in the NBA.

Betting Picks

OU Over 205.5 -112
ML: Timberwolves +152
ATS: Timberwolves +4

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction: Who Takes Game 5?