Cardinals -104 vs Phillies: Four injuries and a home dog that's actually a favorite

The God of Odds likes the St. Louis Cardinals on the moneyline at -104, and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it. The Phillies roll into Busch Stadium with a 62-56 record, but they're walking into a buzzsaw of injuries and a home team that's quietly been competitive all season.

Philadelphia is missing four key pieces: relievers Daniel Robert and Christian McGowan, shortstop Aidan Miller, and first baseman Keaton Anthony. That's a gutted bullpen and a weakened infield, and it shows in their 43% cover rate on the road. The Phillies have gone 30-40 ATS away from home, while the Cardinals, despite a 58-59 overall mark, have been solid at 24-25 ATS at home.

St. Louis is averaging 4.3 runs per game while allowing 4.4, and they've shown flashes of life in their last 10, going 5-5 with a couple of wins mixed in. The Phillies, meanwhile, have been inconsistent, splitting their last 10 at 5-5 as well. But the injury report tilts this one heavily in the Cardinals' favor.

The market hasn't fully adjusted. The Cardinals are priced at -104, a virtual coin flip, but with Philadelphia's bullpen in shambles and their shortstop out, the value is clearly on the home side. LowVig.ag offers the best price at -104, while Bovada has them at -108. Grab the better number.

This is a 4/5 confidence play. The Cardinals are the better team right now, and the Phillies' injuries are a massive red flag. Back St. Louis at home and let the books pay for your summer.