Leverkusen +129 at Hoffenheim. The market sees a gap.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Bayer Leverkusen (moneyline +129)
- Market probability (margin removed): TSG Hoffenheim 34%, Draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 41%
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- TSG Hoffenheim +179 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Draw +300 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Bayer Leverkusen +134 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Draw No Bet
- TSG Hoffenheim +109 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Bayer Leverkusen -132 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Bayer Leverkusen rolls into Hoffenheim as the favorite at +129 on the moneyline, with the market giving Leverkusen a 41% win probability after the margin is removed. Hoffenheim sits at 34%, the draw at 24%. That's a tight enough split that no side clears the bar for a pick, but the pricing tells you where the money has been.
Hoffenheim's case starts with home field and a price that keeps drifting. They're 2-0-4 on the season and riding a 2-game losing streak, scoring 1.8 goals per game while allowing 2.3. The last 10 reads W-L-L-W-L-L-L-L-W-L, a rough stretch. But at +179 at BetOnline.ag, the market is paying you to find out if home form flips.
Leverkusen's case is the record. 4-1-1 overall, 2.7 goals per game scored, 1.5 allowed, and a 6-1 moneyline record. The last 10 shows W-W-W-D-W-L-W-W-W-T, one loss in that span. They're the better team on paper and the market treats them that way, even on the road and even on a 1-game losing streak.
The number moved from +167 to +176 on Hoffenheim, sharp money on Leverkusen. Best price on the home side is +179 at BetOnline.ag, the draw is +300 at BetOnline.ag, and Leverkusen is +134 at BetOnline.ag. In Draw No Bet, Hoffenheim is +109 at BetOnline.ag and Leverkusen is -132 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand you. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at BetOnline.ag.
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Odds Comparison
DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 24, 9:56 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Bayer Leverkusen vs TSG Hoffenheim: FAQ
Who is favored in Bayer Leverkusen vs TSG Hoffenheim?+
Bayer Leverkusen: +129 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 41%.
What are the best odds for Bayer Leverkusen vs TSG Hoffenheim?+
When this analysis was written: TSG Hoffenheim +179 at BetOnline.ag, Draw +300 at BetOnline.ag and Bayer Leverkusen +134 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; TSG Hoffenheim +109 at BetOnline.ag and Bayer Leverkusen -132 at BetOnline.ag on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
Does GODDS have a pick for Bayer Leverkusen vs TSG Hoffenheim?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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