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Manchester City -136 at Forest, and the market isn't blinking.

GODDSGODDS Analysis

No pick

No GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →

The market

  • Favorite: Manchester City (moneyline -138)
  • Market probability (margin removed): Nottingham Forest 21%, Draw 24%, Manchester City 55%

Best prices when this analysis was written

Moneyline

Draw No Bet

Manchester City rolls into Nottingham Forest as the -138 favorite on the moneyline, and the market has already done the math: 55% City, 24% draw, 21% Forest with the margin removed. That's a pricing gap wide enough to matter, and it's the reason this game sits squarely in the gray zone rather than on anyone's short list.

Forest's case is built on survival and stubbornness. They're 1-3-5 on the season, scoring just 0.7 goals per game while allowing 1.3, and they've dropped their last match. But their moneyline record is a respectable 3-3, and the home crowd has seen them grind out draws before. The data doesn't scream goals; it screams a team that makes life difficult and keeps the scoreline tight.

City's case is a seven-game win streak and a 2.2 goals per game attack that's been relentless. They've won 7 of 9 overall, and their 4-2 moneyline record shows they're not invincible, but they're clearly the class of this matchup. The away form is the strongest argument on the board, and the market has priced it accordingly.

The number has moved: Forest opened at +380 and is now +347, a sharp shift toward the home side. That's the market telling you something about how it views City's travel and Forest's resilience. Best price on Forest is +370 at BetAnything, with the draw at +306 there too. City's best moneyline is -136 at BetAnything, and the Draw No Bet market has Forest at +254 and City at -325, both at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no recommendation to give. The best number is there for whatever your read is.

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Odds Comparison

SportsbookCityDrawForestDNB CityDNB Forest
MyBookie.ag+275
Bovada+300
Everygame+275
BetUS+300
BetOnline.ag+306
BetAnything+306
Pinnacle (sharp line) fair-119+314+365-253+253

DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.

Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.

Odds as of Nov 6, 12:20 PM ET. Lines may have moved.

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest: FAQ

Who is favored in Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest?+

Manchester City: -138 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 55%.

What are the best odds for Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest?+

When this analysis was written: Nottingham Forest +370 at BetAnything, Draw +306 at BetAnything and Manchester City -136 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Nottingham Forest +254 at BetAnything and Manchester City -325 at BetAnything on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.

Does GODDS have a pick for Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest?+

No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.

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