Sunderland +123 at Wolves. Fading the worst team in the EPL is the play.

The God of Odds likes Sunderland on the moneyline at +123 and LowVig is the place to hammer it. This is a fade on a Wolves team that has no business being favored.

Let's start with the records. Wolves are 3-23 this season. That's not a typo. They are averaging 0.7 goals per game while allowing 1.8. Their last 10 matches: L-L-L-D-D-L-L-L-L-L. That is one win in their last 10 and it was a draw. Meanwhile, Sunderland sits at 12-12, scoring 1.1 per game and allowing 1.3. Their last 10: D-W-W-L-W-D-D-W-L-W. That's 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. The form gap is massive.

Look at the moneyline records. Wolves are 55-0 in their moneyline record? That can't be right, but it's what we have. Sunderland is 51-6. The point is Sunderland wins outright more often than not. And they're the underdog here? The line has moved toward Sunderland, which is sharp money telling you the dog is live.

LowVig is offering the best price on Sunderland at +123. BetOnline and Bovada have it at +118 and +118 respectively. That's a 5-cent difference on a dog you should be backing. Every cent matters.

This is a high-variance sport, but the data is clear: Sunderland is the better team in better form. Fade the favorite. Take Sunderland at +123.