Braves -103 at Red Sox: Sharp money moved the line, but I'm not budging

The God of Odds likes the Atlanta Braves moneyline at -103 and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it.

This is a mismatch on paper that the oddsmakers are trying to hide. Atlanta comes in with a 36-18 record, the best in the National League. On the road, they're 19-8. Boston sits at 26-26 and has been treading water all season. The Braves have taken 2 of 3 from the Red Sox already this month, including an 8-1 shellacking on May 17.

The pitching gap is massive. Atlanta's team ERA is 3.04. Boston's is 4.54. That's a full run and a half per game. The Braves allow just 3.3 runs per game while scoring 5.2. Boston gives up 4.8. And the Red Sox are banged up: Brendan Rodgers and Tim Elko are both out or doubtful. That's their second baseman and first baseman. Good luck filling those holes against a Braves team that covers at an 81% clip ATS.

Now, I see the moneyline moved from -100 to -107 toward Boston. That's sharp money, sure. But sometimes sharp money is wrong, or it's reacting to a starter change that doesn't move the needle. The Braves are 599-153 on the moneyline this season. That's an 80% win rate. You're telling me I can get them at -103 against a .500 team with injuries? I'll take that all day.

BetOnline.ag has the best price at -103. Bovada has Boston at -102, which is a trap. Don't take the bait. Lock in the Braves at -103 and let the superior team do the work. Confidence is 4 out of 5. This is a strong play.