NCAAF Edge Finder
Efficiency model spread vs live market lines. Find where the model and market disagree.
Coming soon
The NCAAF board is not live yet. The model below is built and documented, and it will be published once we can show what it has actually done rather than what it projects.
How it works, the formula and the FAQ are below.
View all NCAAF matchups →How the Edge Finder Works
The Formula
Every college basketball team has a net efficiency: points scored per game minus points allowed. A team scoring 80 and allowing 70 has a net efficiency of +10. The gap between two teams, multiplied by 0.68, gives a projected spread on a neutral court.
The 0.68 factor converts efficiency to a game spread, documented by Ken Pomeroy and used by sharp bettors and analytics sites worldwide. College games average 68 possessions, not 100, which is where the factor comes from.
// Edge Finder formula
homeNet = homePPG - homeOppPPG
awayNet = awayPPG - awayOppPPG
neutral = (homeNet - awayNet) x 0.68
model = neutral + 3 pts (home court)
// gap = model + marketSpread
Finding Value
Sportsbooks use efficiency data when setting lines, which means gaps are usually small. But inefficiencies appear when injuries create uncertainty, when public money pushes lines, or when a team efficiency is trending faster than the market adjusts.
The strongest signal is when the efficiency gap and the GODDS AI pick point the same direction: two independent models in agreement. The AI incorporates 19 signals including line movement, ATS records, injuries, H2H, and streaks while the efficiency model uses only scoring data. Confluence means conviction.
Strong edge (2.5+ pts)
Significant model-market disagreement. Worth analyzing with full pick context.
Moderate edge (1 to 2.5 pts)
Monitor alongside other signals, especially line movement
Efficient market (under 1 pt)
Model and market agree. No efficiency-based edge identified.
Efficiency Ratings and NCAAF Betting
Advanced efficiency metrics transformed how serious bettors approach college basketball. Raw win-loss records miss context. A team beating bad opponents looks identical to one beating ranked opponents. Efficiency ratings normalize for pace and opponent strength, measuring points per possession rather than points per game.
Ken Pomeroy popularized this approach with his adjusted efficiency ratings, which account for tempo and strength of schedule in greater detail. The GODDS Edge Finder uses a simplified version of the same methodology: season-long PPG and opponent PPG as efficiency proxies, which captures most of the predictive signal without requiring a paid subscription. The conversion formula (efficiency gap x 0.68 + home court) is publicly documented.
Sportsbooks have incorporated efficiency data into their lines for years. This means the market spread is rarely far from what efficiency models project. The opportunities are in the gaps: when public betting pressure moves a line away from its efficiency anchor, when injury news creates uncertainty that has not fully priced in, or when a team efficiency is trending in a direction the market has not yet acknowledged.
The GODDS Edge Finder automates this process daily. Instead of manually calculating gaps for every game, the tool highlights the games where model and market disagree most, layers in the GODDS AI pick, and shows you the best available odds across 12 offshore sportsbooks. The goal is a single page that gives you everything you need to make an informed decision, or to quickly confirm that a game has no edge worth pursuing.