Boston Red Sox +134 at New York Mets: Fade the 40-55 home favorite

The God of Odds likes the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline at +134 and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

Let's start with the obvious: the Mets are 40-55 for a reason. They've lost 26 of 41 moneyline decisions and their home record sits at 21-26. Meanwhile, Boston is 48-45 despite a tough road split, and they're covering spreads at a blistering 69% clip. That's not luck. That's a team that consistently outperforms expectations.

Yesterday's head-to-head result says it all: Red Sox 6, Mets 2. Boston's offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game, while New York is allowing 4.8. That's a dead-even scoring environment tilted in favor of the better team. The Red Sox also hold an OPS edge .732 to .688, and they're getting a key bat back with Tim Elko listed as doubtful but not ruled out. Even without him, this lineup is deeper than the Mets'.

Now look at the price. The consensus line has the Mets around -148, but LowVig is offering Boston at +134. That's a full four cents better than Bovada and MyBookie. When a 48-win underdog with a winning record and a 25-19 moneyline mark is priced like a scrub, you pounce. The Mets' ERA is 4.32, Boston's is 4.19. Slight edge to the visitors on the mound too.

At 3/5 confidence, this is a solid play. The Red Sox have the better record, the better offense, and the better moneyline track record. They're also the hotter team in this matchup after yesterday's win. Fade the 40-55 favorite and grab the plus money with Boston at LowVig before the line moves.