WINNER - Chicago Cubs moneyline
Final: Chicago Cubs 5, Cincinnati Reds 3
+1.04u
Profit
✅ Cubs Moneyline Cashes at +104: Sharp Bettors Knew
Godds Pick
Chicago Cubs ML
Moneyline · Best odds: +104 at BetOnline.ag
Chicago Cubs have a 52-42 record and a 29-16 moneyline record, showing they win outright often. They also hold a 4-1 head-to-head edge over Cincinnati this season. The Reds are 43-50 and missing two key pitchers, while the Cubs have only one injury.
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Pick Cashed
Final: Chicago Cubs 5, Cincinnati Reds 3 • Chicago Cubs moneyline ML
+1.04u
⚡ Why It Hit
The Cubs won outright at +104 because they are a fundamentally better team with a sharp moneyline record, while the Reds are inconsistent and overvalued at home. The head to head history also favored Chicago, and they delivered.
Post-Game Analysis
✅ WIN: Chicago Cubs 5, Cincinnati Reds 3. The Cubs moneyline at +104 cashed exactly as expected.
This was a sharp bet from the start. The Cubs came in at 52-42 with a moneyline record of 29-16, meaning they consistently win games the market undervalues. The Reds? 43-50 and 22-26 at home, with no real momentum at 5-5 in their last 10. The head to head history was also in Chicago's favor, and they proved it again tonight.
LowVig.ag had the best number at +104, and anyone who grabbed it got plus money on a team that should have been favored. The Cubs jumped out early and held on, exactly what sharp bettors expected.
The takeaway: Trust the Cubs as a plus money play when the market underrates them, especially against middling teams like the Reds.
The God of Odds delivers again.
All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes the Chicago Cubs moneyline at +104 and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it.
This isn't complicated. The Cubs are a winning team at 52-42 overall and 25-23 on the road. Their moneyline record is a sharp 29-16, meaning they win outright far more often than the market prices them. Meanwhile, the Reds are 43-50 and just 22-26 at home. They've been inconsistent, going 5-5 in their last 10 with no real momentum.
Head to head, the Cubs have owned this matchup. In their last five meetings, Chicago is 4-1, including a three-game sweep in early May where they won by scores of 5-4, 3-2, and 7-6. That's a pattern, not a fluke. The Cubs score 5.0 runs per game while allowing 4.5, a solid +0.5 differential. The Reds score 4.2 and allow 4.8, a negative margin that shows why they're under .500.
Injuries tilt this further toward Chicago. The Reds are missing reliever Alex Young and starter Carson Spiers, both out or doubtful. That thins a bullpen that already has a 4.48 ERA. The Cubs only have one injured arm in Brandon Birdsell, a less impactful loss.
The line has moved against the Cubs from +102 to -115 on the moneyline, meaning sharp money is on Cincinnati. But that's a trap. The Cubs are the better team with the better record and the head-to-head proof. Fading the sharp move here is the right call.
For the best price, hit LowVig.ag at +104. That's the only book offering the Cubs as an underdog. Everywhere else is -102 or worse. You're getting plus money on a team that should be favored. Take it.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Jul 11, 5:57 PM ET — lines may have moved
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