Chicago Cubs +119 at Pittsburgh Pirates: Fade the Pirates' paper-thin bullpen

The God of Odds likes the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline at +119 and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

Let's cut through the noise. The Pirates are 27-26 and playing at home, but this line is backwards. The Cubs are 29-24 overall with a better record. Pittsburgh's recent form is ugly: 4-6 in their last 10 with three losses in their last four. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10, but that skid is overblown. They won two of their last three before this losing streak started, and they're getting a fat plus price against a team that's barely above .500.

Now look at the injury report. The Pirates are missing three key pieces: relievers Chris Devenski and Oddanier Mosqueda, plus second baseman Ronny Simon. That's a thin bullpen getting thinner. The Cubs have only one notable absence in reliever Brandon Birdsell. Pittsburgh's bullpen was already shaky, and now they're down two arms. That's a gift for a Cubs lineup that averages 4.8 runs per game.

Head to head, the Pirates took three of four earlier this season, but those games were tight: 2-0, 4-3, and 7-6. The Cubs were in every game. Regression favors the better team here, and the Cubs are the better team.

LowVig has the best price at +119. BetOnline and BetUS both offer +119 as well, but LowVig gives you the best value on the underdog. Don't pay -129 at MyBookie for the Pirates when you can get the Cubs at plus money. The sharp play is on Chicago. Take the plus money and fade the favorite.

Confidence: 3/5. This is a solid value play on a team that's being disrespected by the market.