Cubs +112 at Pirates: Fading Pittsburgh's banged-up roster

The God of Odds likes the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline at +112 and Bovada is the place to hammer it. The Pirates are favored, but the numbers and injury report say this line is backward.

The Cubs are 59-45 this season with a rock-solid 29-23 road record. They've won 7 of their last 10 games, including a 3-1 stretch in their most recent four. Meanwhile, the Pirates sit at 53-52 and have lost 3 of their last 4. Their home record of 27-26 is nothing special.

Injuries tilt this even further. The Pirates are missing three key players: relievers Chris Devenski and Oddanier Mosqueda, plus second baseman Ronny Simon. That's a bullpen and lineup hit the Cubs don't have to deal with. Chicago only has one injury (Brandon Birdsell, RP). Depth matters in a close game.

The head-to-head record says Pittsburgh won 4 of 5, but those games were tight. Three of the five were decided by one run, and the Cubs won the most recent meeting 7-6. Regression is due.

Now for the edge. The best moneyline price on the Cubs is +112 at Bovada. Compare that to the consensus -122 on the Pirates across most books. You're getting a team with a better record, better recent form, and fewer injuries at a dog price. That's value. Bet the Cubs at Bovada before the line moves.