Chicago Cubs +105 at St. Louis Cardinals. The better team is the dog.

The God of Odds likes the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline at +105 -- and BetUS is the place to hammer it.

The numbers don't lie. The Cubs are 61-47 this season, 14 games over .500. They're 31-25 on the road. The Cardinals? 54-54 overall, 28-31 at home. One team is playing winning baseball. The other is treading water.

St. Louis has the head-to-head edge (4-1 in the last five meetings), but that's noise. The Cardinals are losers of three of their last four games. Their recent form is ugly: L-L-W-L-L-W-L-L-L-W. Meanwhile, Chicago is 6-4 in their last 10 and coming off a win. The Cubs score 5.2 runs per game, nearly a full run more than St. Louis (4.4). Defensively, both allow 4.4-4.5, so the edge is on offense.

The line movement tells you everything. The Cardinals opened around -109 and have been bet up to -115. Sharp money is on St. Louis, but that's exactly when you want to fade the favorite. The Cubs are getting +104 to +105 across the board, and BetUS offers the best price at +105. That's a full tick better than the consensus.

Yes, the Cubs have a key injury -- reliever Brandon Birdsell is out. But that's baked into the price. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA sits at 4.18, nearly identical to Chicago's 4.18. No edge there.

At +105, you're getting a team with a better record, better road form, and better scoring on the road against a sub-.500 home squad. The market overcorrected. Take the Cubs and the plus money.