Royals at Pirates: Kansas City +107 is the dog that bites back

The God of Odds likes the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline at +107, and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it. Pittsburgh is banged up, the price is inflated, and the market is handing you a live dog at plus money. Take it.

The Pirates are down three bodies: reliever Chris Devenski, lefty Oddanier Mosqueda, and infielder Ronny Simon. That thins out a bullpen already attached to a 4.20 staff ERA and strips the bench of a bat. Pittsburgh has also lost two of its last four and sits at just 38-36 on the moneyline at home, which tells you the 41-36 home record is softer than it looks. The Royals are 67-88 and 28-52 on the road, so this is no juggernaut. But at +107 you don't need a juggernaut. You need the better price on a coin-flip game, and that's exactly what this is.

Kansas City has won three of its last five and split its last ten (4-6). The offense puts up 4.2 runs per game, and the staff allows 4.9, so this isn't a shutdown unit. But Pittsburgh's 4.8 runs scored against a 4.6 allowed profile is only marginally better, and the three injuries shrink that gap. The Pirates are also 34-38 against the spread at home, a 47% cover rate, meaning they don't separate from opponents. Close games favor the dog when the dog is getting plus money.

The head-to-head is thin, just one meeting this season, an 8-5 Pirates win back on September 18. That result is baked into this price. The market is charging you a premium for a game that should be closer to a pick'em. It isn't.

BetOnline.ag lists Kansas City at +107, the best number on the board. BetUS is at +102, Bovada at -107, and MyBookie at -102. That's a 5 to 9 cent gap between books, and it matters. At +107 you're getting the highest payout available on the side the model likes. Shop the line, take the plus money, and let the Pirates' injury report do the rest.