LOSS - Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline
Final: Cincinnati Reds 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 4
-1.00u
Profit
❌ Pirates Moneyline Falls Short: Bullpen Blows Lead at Home
Godds Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
Moneyline · Best odds: -191 at BetOnline.ag
Pirates are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, have a better record (41-40 vs 37-42), and score more (5.0 PPG vs 4.2). With three Reds pitchers out and Pittsburgh's solid home record (22-20), the -191 at BetOnline is the best price.
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Pick Missed
Final: Cincinnati Reds 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 4 • Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline ML
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The Pirates lost because their bullpen allowed 4 runs in the final 3 innings after leading 4-2. The Reds' starter Nick Lodolo held Pittsburgh to 2 runs over 6 innings, and Cincinnati's offense capitalized on Pittsburgh's relief weakness.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS: Cincinnati Reds 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 4. The Pirates couldn't close it out at home.
Why it missed: The Pirates bullpen blew it. Pittsburgh led 4-2 heading into the 7th, then the wheels came off. The Reds scored 3 in the 7th and 1 more in the 8th. That's 4 unanswered runs. Our pre-game analysis was built on Pittsburgh's superior run differential and home record, but we didn't account for a bullpen meltdown. The Pirates' relievers have a 4.89 ERA over the last 30 days, and it showed. Nick Lodolo for the Reds pitched 6 strong innings, allowing just 2 runs. The Pirates managed only 4 runs despite having the advantage on paper. Sometimes the numbers lie, and tonight they did.
The takeaway: Even when the better team has the edge, bullpen volatility can sink a moneyline play. Next time, look for live betting opportunities to fade a shaky pen.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes the Pittsburgh Pirates on the moneyline at -191 and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it.
This isn't complicated. The Pirates are the better team with a 41-40 record against the Reds' 37-42. They score more (5.0 PPG vs 4.2) and allow fewer runs (4.7 vs 4.8). At home, they're 22-20, while Cincinnati is 18-20 on the road. The head-to-head numbers are even more convincing: Pittsburgh has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including two 8-3 beatdowns in the last series.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but the Reds are hit harder. Cincinnati is without Carson Spiers (SP) and Alex Young (RP), which thins an already shaky rotation and bullpen. The Pirates will miss Chris Devenski and Oddanier Mosqueda in the pen, but their offense has the edge with a .746 OPS compared to the Reds' .699. That difference matters when you're laying -191.
The line has held steady, and that's a good sign. No sharp money pushing the price down means the books are comfortable with the Pirates as a 66% favorite. I'm comfortable too. Pittsburgh's moneyline record (1308-551) shows they win when they should, and at -191, you're getting a fair price on a team that's simply better.
Shop around and you'll see -191 at BetOnline.ag is the best available. Bovada is juiced to -208, so you're saving 17 cents by locking in the better number. That's real value on a pick that's already backed by the data. Take the Pirates and move on.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Jun 26, 8:18 AM ET — lines may have moved
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