Royals -112 vs Guardians: Home cooking and a fading Cleveland bullpen

The God of Odds likes the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline at -111 and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

The Guardians come into Kauffman Stadium losers of four of their last five. Meanwhile, the Royals have won three of their last four and sit at 9-7 at home. Cleveland's road record is a pedestrian 9-10, and they're dealing with a key injury to reliever Carlos Hernandez, who is out or doubtful.

Kansas City's offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, nearly identical to Cleveland's 4.2. But the Royals' pitching has been slightly stingier at home, and the Guardians' bullpen depth takes a hit without Hernandez. In their last three meetings, the Royals won the most recent matchup 4-2 on April 6, and they've shown they can handle Cleveland's lineup.

The moneyline has moved from -120 to -112, which is sharp money coming in on Cleveland. But that's exactly why we're backing the Royals. The line movement creates value on the home team. The market is overcorrecting for a small sample, and we're buying low on a team that's been solid at home.

Lock in the Royals at -111 at LowVig. That's the best price on the board, and it's the right side. Cleveland's form is poor, their bullpen is banged up, and the Royals are undervalued. Take the home team and cash it.