Astros +106 at Rangers: Fade the banged-up favorite with a dog that's already beaten them twice this month

The God of Odds likes the Houston Astros on the moneyline at +106 and BetUS is the place to hammer it.

The Rangers are the favorites here, but they're a wounded favorite. Texas is missing Sebastian Walcott at shortstop, starting pitcher Nabil Crismatt, and reliever Declan Cronin. That's three key pieces out of the lineup, and the books haven't adjusted enough. Meanwhile, Houston has already taken 3 of the last 5 meetings, including two straight wins on May 16 where they held Texas to one total run.

The Astros are 46-50 on the season, but they're 15-13 on the moneyline as underdogs and cover at a 56% clip ATS. That tells you they win games they're not supposed to. Texas, by contrast, is just 18-22 on the moneyline overall and 16-21-0 ATS, covering only 43% of the time. The Rangers' ERA is 4.07, but Houston's offense averages 4.5 runs per game and has already proven they can solve this pitching staff.

Line movement has been flat, which means sharp money hasn't pushed this number down yet. That's your window. At +106, you're getting plus money on a team that's won 60% of the recent head-to-head matchups and faces a depleted opponent. BetUS is offering the best price at +106, a full three cents better than the consensus at +103. Don't leave value on the table.

Fade the banged-up favorite. Take the Astros to win outright.