Guardians -135 vs Angels: Trust the better team at home

The God of Odds likes the Cleveland Guardians on the moneyline at -135, and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

The Angels come to Cleveland with a 16-25 record and an ugly 8-15 mark on the road. They're allowing 4.9 runs per game with a 4.56 ERA. Meanwhile, the Guardians sit at 21-21, playing .500 ball despite a tough schedule, and they're 10-9 at Progressive Field. Cleveland's pitching staff owns a 3.94 ERA, a full half-run better than the Angels. That's the kind of edge that wins games.

Head to head, Cleveland has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings. The Angels haven't shown they can beat this team consistently. And while the Guardians are missing reliever Carlos Hernandez, that's a bullpen piece, not a rotation anchor. The bigger story is Los Angeles' inability to win on the road and their poor form: 3-7 in their last 10.

The moneyline moved from -140 to -135, which looks like sharp money on the Angels. But that only makes the Guardians more attractive. We're getting the better team at a discount. Cleveland covers at a 66% clip ATS, and their moneyline record is 228-240 overall. That's a team that wins more often than the market expects.

Shop this at LowVig for -135. Bovada has it at -139, so you're saving four cents by going with LowVig. The best available number for the favorite is right here. Lock in the Guardians and let the sharper pitching and home field do the work.