Brewers +114 at Braves: Fade Atlanta's recent slide and grab the value dog

The God of Odds likes the Milwaukee Brewers moneyline at +114 and BetUS is the place to hammer it. Atlanta is a good team, but the price is wrong here. The Brewers come in with a 45-28 record, the same as the Braves, and they've been just as good on the road (20-13) as Atlanta has been at home (23-13). Yet the books are hanging the Braves as -125 favorites? That's a gift.

Look at recent form. The Braves are 3-6-1 in their last 10 games with losses piling up. They've dropped six of their last seven decisions. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 and have won three of their last four. Milwaukee scores 5.3 runs per game, slightly better than Atlanta's 5.0, and both teams allow almost identical runs (3.7 vs 3.6). The Brewers' ERA is 3.43, right in line with Atlanta's 3.38. This is a coin flip game, but the market is treating it like Atlanta is a tier above.

The only injury concern for Milwaukee is reliever Gerson Garabito, but that's not enough to justify this line. The total dropped from 7.5 to 7, suggesting sharp money expects a lower-scoring game, which favors the underdog. Atlanta's moneyline record (1177-443) looks dominant, but that's a career mark, not this season. The Brewers have covered at a 63% clip ATS and have a strong moneyline record of their own (987-587).

BetUS is offering the best price on Milwaukee at +114. That's a full five cents better than Bovada's +109. Every dollar counts when you're fading a public favorite. The Braves have been slipping, and the Brewers are more than capable of stealing this one. Take the plus money and let the market overcorrect.

The Brewers are the play at +114. Fade the Braves' recent slide and grab the value dog.