Atlanta Braves -121 vs Mets tonight. The numbers say hammer it.

The God of Odds likes the Atlanta Braves moneyline at -121 and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it.

The numbers are screaming Atlanta. The Braves are 52-35 overall and 27-16 at home. They score 4.9 runs per game while allowing just 3.7. Their ERA sits at 3.46, nearly a full run better than the Mets' 4.25. And their OPS of .724 dwarfs New York's .674.

Now look at the Mets. They're 36-53 and 17-29 on the road. They've lost 7 of their last 10 games and are 1-5 in their last 5. On top of that, they're dealing with three key injuries: Mike Tauchman, Robert Stock, and Grae Kessinger are all out or doubtful. That's a depleted lineup and bullpen against a Braves team that's been winning all year.

The line hasn't moved much, which tells me the books aren't scared. But the data is clear. Atlanta has the better record, the better home splits, the better pitching, and the better offense. The Mets are in poor form and shorthanded.

LowVig.ag has the best moneyline price at -121. That's the number to take. BetOnline and BetUS are also at -121, but Bovada is juiced to -131. Don't pay extra. Lock in the Braves at the best number and let the sharp side cash.

Confidence is 4 out of 5. This is a strong play.