Yankees -140 at Fenway. Boston's ERA is a mess and they're missing a key bat.

The God of Odds likes the New York Yankees on the moneyline at -140 and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

Let's cut through the noise. The Yankees are 48-31 for a reason. They own a 26-16 road record, score 5.1 runs per game, and allow just 3.6. That's a +1.5 run differential every night. Compare that to Boston's 4.6 scored and 4.6 allowed, and you see a team that's exactly .500 in terms of run production. The Yankees' 3.34 ERA is a full run better than Boston's 4.33. That's not a small gap, that's a chasm.

Boston is 41-38 and their recent form is shaky: losers of 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 7. They're also missing second baseman Brendan Rodgers, who's listed as out or doubtful. That's a hole in the middle of their defense and lineup. The Yankees, meanwhile, have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings this season, including a 4-0 shutout and a 4-1 win. They know how to handle this Boston team.

The line hasn't moved much, which tells me sharp money isn't forcing a correction. The market is comfortable with the Yankees as -140 favorites, and so am I. You're getting a superior team with a superior ERA on the road against a banged-up division rival. This is a strong play.

LowVig has the best price at -140. BetUS and Bovada are at -143, so you're saving 3 cents of juice by going with LowVig. That's a free drink on every bet. Don't pay extra for the same result.