New York Yankees -118 at Boston Red Sox. The better team at a discount.

The God of Odds likes the New York Yankees moneyline at -118 and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

The Yankees are the better team in this matchup. Period. They're 48-33 overall with a 26-18 road record. Their pitching staff owns a 3.34 ERA, a full run better than Boston's 4.29. The Red Sox are sitting at 42-38 and their home record is flashy at 27-13, but that's masking real problems.

Boston is banged up. Brendan Rodgers and Tim Elko are both out or doubtful. That's two key bats missing from the lineup. Meanwhile, the Yankees have already proven they own this matchup. They took three of four from Boston back in April, outscoring them 12-3 in the process. The Red Sox are also in poor recent form. They've lost four of their last six, and their last 10 games show more L's than W's.

Now look at the line movement. The Yankees opened around -113 and have been bet to -118, but the sharp money has actually pushed the other way. That means the public is backing Boston, and we're getting the better team at a slight discount. When the market moves against a superior squad, you take the value.

LowVig has the best price on the Yankees at -118. BetOnline and BetUS also have -118, but LowVig is the sharp book you want your action on. The consensus total is 8.5 and the spread is 1.5, but we're keeping it simple. The Yankees win this game outright.

This is a 4 out of 5 confidence play. High variance in MLB means we cap our stars at three, but the Yankees have the edge everywhere that matters: record, road form, pitching, and recent head-to-head. Trust the data. Take New York at -118.