Orioles +125 vs Phillies: The market is sleeping on Baltimore

The God of Odds likes Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline at +125, and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it. The Phillies are stumbling, and this line is a gift.

Philadelphia enters this one losers of eight of their last ten. They're 57-53 overall, but that record is paper-thin when you look at the last two weeks. The Phillies are averaging 4.3 runs per game while allowing 4.5, and their bullpen is banged up with Daniel Robert and Christian McGowan both out. Add in Aidan Miller and Keaton Anthony on the shelf, and this team is running on fumes.

Baltimore, meanwhile, is quietly 30-27 at home. They score 4.6 runs per game and allow 4.8, so they're not dominant, but they don't need to be. The Orioles have won three of their last four, and while they're missing Keagan Gillies and Luis Vazquez, that's nothing compared to the Phillies' injury list. The Phillies are 25-38 against the spread, covering at just a 40% clip. The Orioles aren't much better at 26-33, but they're the ones getting plus money.

The market is pricing this as if the Phillies are the better team. They're not. Not right now. The Phillies have lost eight of ten, and they're dealing with four key injuries. Baltimore is at home, scoring nearly half a run more per game, and they're getting plus money. That's the definition of value.

LowVig.ag has the best price on the Orioles at +125. MyBookie and Bovada are offering +119, so you're leaving money on the table if you shop elsewhere. BetOnline and BetUS also have +125, but LowVig is the sharpest book in the game. When the line moves in your favor, you want to be on the right side.

This is a 4 out of 5 confidence play. The Phillies are a mess, the Orioles are at home, and the price is right. Fade the favorite and take the dog with the better form. Baltimore wins this one.