Phillies +118 at Mets: Fade the favorite, take the dog with the better record

The God of Odds likes the Philadelphia Phillies on the moneyline at +118 and BetUS is the place to hammer it. The Mets are being priced like a contender, but their 34-48 record says otherwise. This is a classic fade-the-favorite spot with real value on the road dog.

The Phillies come in at 46-36 overall and a strong 23-17 away from home. They just took two of three from these same Mets last week, winning 15-3 and 6-2. The Mets are losers of six of their last seven and have a pathetic 24% cover rate against the spread. Their moneyline record of 473-852 tells you they lose more often than they win, even at home where they're 18-23.

Both teams have four key injuries, but the Phillies' depth has carried them through. The Mets' ERA sits at 4.14, slightly worse than the Phillies' 4.10. With the Phillies averaging 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.3, they're essentially a .500 team on paper, but the Mets are worse in every category.

The line hasn't moved, which tells me the public is sleeping on the Phillies. That's fine. More value for us. BetUS has the best price at +118, a full four cents better than MyBookie's +114. Don't pay the chalk on a team that's 14 games under .500. Take the Phillies and the plus money.