LOSS - Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline
Final: Philadelphia Phillies 11, Pittsburgh Pirates 9
-1.00u
Profit
❌ Pirates +147 Falls Short: 11-9 Loss to Phillies
Godds Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
Moneyline · Best odds: +147 at BetOnline.ag
The Pirates have a better ERA (3.71 vs 4.36) and OPS (.728 vs .687), plus the Phillies are banged up with 4 key injuries. Pittsburgh is at home where they play well (13-10), and the line hasn't moved off +147, offering value on a team with a winning record.
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Pick Missed
Final: Philadelphia Phillies 11, Pittsburgh Pirates 9 • Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline ML
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The Pirates had superior season stats in runs scored, runs allowed, ERA, and OPS. But the Phillies' offense exploded for 11 runs, far above their average. Pittsburgh scored 9 themselves but couldn't get enough stops. The value at +147 was correct, but variance ruled the day.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS: The Pirates lost 11-9 to the Phillies, failing to cover the +147 moneyline.
This one stings because the Pirates had the better numbers coming in. They scored 5.0 runs per game to Philly's 4.0, and their ERA was 3.71 against 4.36. But baseball is a fickle sport. The Phillies exploded for 11 runs, well above their season average. Sometimes the numbers don't matter on a given night. The Pirates actually scored 9 runs themselves, which should have been enough to win most games. But their pitching got shelled, and that's the risk you take with a team that relies on offense. BetOnline.ag had the best price at +147, and the value was there. It just didn't hit.
The takeaway: Even when the data supports a play, variance can crush you. Stick with the process and trust the numbers over the long haul.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes the Pittsburgh Pirates at +147 moneyline against the Philadelphia Phillies. BetOnline.ag has the best price at +147, and that's where you should hammer it.
The Pirates are 24-20 overall and 13-10 at home. They score 5.0 runs per game while allowing 4.3. Compare that to the Phillies, who are 21-23 and score just 4.0 while allowing 4.7. The advanced numbers tell the same story: Pittsburgh's ERA is 3.71, Philadelphia's is 4.36. The Pirates also hold a .728 OPS edge over the Phillies' .687.
Injuries tilt this even further. The Pirates are missing three players, but the Phillies are missing four, including key relievers Daniel Robert and Christian McGowan. That's a big deal against a Pirates lineup that's been consistent.
Recent form backs the home side. Pittsburgh is 6-4 in their last 10, while Philadelphia is 5-5. The Pirates have been covering at a 71% clip ATS, and their moneyline record is 473-110. That's absurdly profitable. The Phillies cover at just 16% ATS and have a losing moneyline record.
The total dropped from 8.5 to 8, suggesting sharp money expects a lower-scoring game. That favors the underdog Pirates, who have the better pitching. At +147, you're getting a team with a winning record, home-field advantage, and a clear statistical edge. Fade the favorite narrative and take the value.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of May 16, 2:24 AM ET — lines may have moved
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