LOSS - Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline
Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 3, Chicago Cubs 4
-1.00u
Profit
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
❌ Pirates +108 Miss: Right Number, Wrong Side of a One-Run Game
Godds Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
Moneyline · Best odds: +110 at Everygame
Pittsburgh is 74-74 on the season and 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago. The Pirates are 9-3 in their last 12 overall, while the Cubs have dropped 4 of their last 5. The moneyline has moved from -130 to -121, signaling sharp money on the underdog.
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Pick Missed
Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 3, Chicago Cubs 4 • Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline ML
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The pick missed because Pittsburgh managed only 3 runs and lost a one-run game at Wrigley. The +108 price at Everygame was the correct value play against a -121 market, but the Pirates' bats went quiet in a coin-flip finish. Process was sound, result was a loss.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS: Pittsburgh Pirates 3, Chicago Cubs 4. The +108 moneyline at Everygame came up one run short at Wrigley.
Why it missed: the value was real, the result wasn't. Everygame hung +110 on Pittsburgh when the market sat at -121 on Chicago, and grabbing that number was the right process. Pittsburgh had won 4 of the last 5 in this series, including a 2-0 shutout on April 10 and a 4-3 win on April 11. But the Cubs flipped the script in a one-run game, and a 3-run output doesn't cash a moneyline ticket. The pre-game read on the head-to-head was correct. The final scoreboard didn't cooperate.
This is the cost of chasing the best number. You found a +110 when the market said -121, and that's a bet you make every time. One-run games are coin flips, and this one landed on the wrong side.
The takeaway: keep hunting the best price, but respect how thin the margin is in a 3-4 game. Value doesn't guarantee wins, it guarantees you're on the right side of the math over time.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes Pittsburgh Pirates on the moneyline at +110, and Everygame is the place to hammer it. The Cubs are -121 at most books, but Everygame is hanging +110 on the Pirates, and that's the number you want.
Start with the head-to-head. Pittsburgh has won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two, including a 2-0 shutout on April 10 and a 4-3 win on April 11. The Cubs took the last one 7-6, but that's one game in a series that's been all Pirates. Chicago is 82-66 on the season, but they're just 1-4 in their last five and 5-5 in their last 10. Pittsburgh is 9-3 in their last 12 and 74-74 overall, which means they're playing their best baseball right now.
The Cubs score 5.4 runs per game and allow 4.4, while the Pirates score 4.8 and allow 4.6. The run differential favors Chicago, but the gap is smaller than the records suggest. Pittsburgh's 4.18 ERA is actually better than Chicago's 4.20. The Cubs are dealing with a bullpen injury to Brandon Birdsell, while the Pirates are missing Chris Devenski, Oddanier Mosqueda, and Ronny Simon. Those are depth pieces, not difference-makers.
The moneyline has moved from -130 to -121, which tells you sharp money is on Pittsburgh. The public sees the Cubs' record and piles on the favorite, but the line is moving the other way. That's the signal. The Pirates are 37-34 on the moneyline this season, and they're 4-1 against Chicago. The Cubs are 43-20 on the moneyline, but they're 1-4 in their last five and the line is telling you something.
Everygame is offering +110 on the Pirates, which is the best price on the board. BetOnline and BetUS are at +109, Bovada is at +107, and MyBookie is at +104. That's a 6-cent difference between Everygame and MyBookie, which matters over time. Take the +110 at Everygame and don't overthink it.
The Cubs are the better team on paper, but the Pirates have the head-to-head edge, the recent form, and the line movement. At +110, you're getting a live underdog with a proven track record against this opponent. That's value.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Sep 12, 9:30 AM ET — lines may have moved
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