Pirates vs Reds: Cincinnati +106 is the sharp side of this fade

The God of Odds likes the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline at +106, and BetUS is the place to hammer it. The market's been sliding our way, from +112 down to +106, and that's sharp money telling you the Pirates are overvalued.

Pittsburgh's wheels are falling off. They've lost four straight and are just 25-29 against the spread on the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has won two of their last three and cover at a 56% clip overall. The Reds have been competitive at home despite a 25-30 record, and they're catching the Pirates at the wrong time.

Injuries are the real story here. The Pirates are missing three key pieces: Chris Devenski, Oddanier Mosqueda, and Ronny Simon. That's a bullpen arm, a lefty specialist, and a starting second baseman. Cincinnati's own injuries to Alex Young and Carson Spiers hurt, but they're not as deep a cut. The Reds' offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, and while they allow 4.8, the Pirates' recent form suggests they won't cash in.

The head-to-head history is ugly, with Pittsburgh taking 4 of the last 5, but those wins came in March and April. This is a different Reds team now, and the line movement confirms it. When the number moves from +112 to +106, the market is telling you the underdog is live.

Shop around and you'll find BetUS offering +107, better than the consensus +106. LowVig and BetOnline are stuck at +106, and Bovada's at +103. Take the extra dime at BetUS and get the best price on the dog. At +106, you're getting a team that's been covering at a 56% clip and facing a Pirates squad that's lost 4 straight. That's the kind of value you don't pass up.