Dodgers -282 vs Pirates: The sharp money is wrong, back LA

The God of Odds likes the Los Angeles Dodgers on the moneyline at -282, and you should hammer it at MyBookie.ag where they're offering the best price at -270. The Pirates are a mess right now, and the Dodgers are exactly the kind of team you want backing you in a spot like this.

Los Angeles comes in with a 79-51 record, and they're 39-26 at home. They're averaging 5.0 runs per game while allowing just 3.9, and their ERA sits at 3.70. The Pirates, meanwhile, have a 4.29 ERA and are 29-36 on the road. They're also missing Chris Devenski, Oddanier Mosqueda, and Ronny Simon, three guys who would've been counted on in a game like this.

Now, the line moved from -300 to -282, which tells you some money came in on Pittsburgh. But that's a classic overreaction to a small sample. The Dodgers have won 7 of their last 10, and they've been rolling at home. The Pirates have lost 4 of their last 5. You don't need a math degree to see which side has the edge.

The market is asking you to pay a premium for the Dodgers, but that's the price of certainty. The Dodgers' pitching is significantly better, their offense is just as potent, and they're playing in front of a home crowd that expects a win. The Pirates' bullpen is depleted, and their lineup is missing a key bat.

MyBookie.ag has the best number at -270, so that's where you should lock it in. The other books are all at -282 or worse. Every dollar you save on the juice is a dollar you keep in your pocket when the Dodgers roll.

This is a 3/5 confidence play. It's not a lock, but it's about as close as you get in baseball. The Dodgers are the better team, they're at home, and they're facing a banged-up opponent. Take the -270 and move on.