Pirates +113 at Nationals. Washington's home woes make this an easy fade.

The God of Odds likes the Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline at +113 and MyBookie.ag is the place to hammer it.

Let's be real about this matchup. The Nationals are 46-44 overall, but their home record is a brutal 18-26. That's not a fluke. Washington's pitchers are dropping like flies with Joan Adon, Tyler Stuart, Jarlin Susana, and Travis Sykora all out or doubtful. That's four arms missing from the staff. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 45-45 and 22-23 on the road, which is respectable. They've got three injuries of their own, but none as damaging as losing two starting pitchers and two relievers.

Look at the recent form. The Pirates took 2 of 3 from these same Nationals back in April, including a 16-5 shellacking and a 2-0 shutout. Washington's last 10 games are a rollercoaster: L-L-L-W-W-L-W-W-W-L. No consistency. Pittsburgh's last 10? W-L-L-W-W-L-L-W-L-W. They're scrappy and they cover at a 59% clip against the spread. The Nationals cover at 58%, but that's inflated by their road success.

The line movement is dead flat, which tells you the books aren't scared of the favorite. At home, the Nats are -125 at best, but the Pirates at +113 on MyBookie.ag is the sharp play. Compare that to LowVig and BetOnline offering +113 as well, but MyBookie edges out with the same number and no juice difference. Why pay for a favorite that can't win at home? Fade the Nationals and grab the value on Pittsburgh.

This is a 3 out of 5 confidence play. Solid, not screaming, but the data lines up. The Pirates are the right side at a fair price.