LOSS - St. Louis Cardinals moneyline
Final: St. Louis Cardinals 0, Chicago Cubs 3
-1.00u
Profit
❌ Cardinals +158 Shut Out: Market Had This One Right
Godds Pick
St. Louis Cardinals ML
Moneyline · Best odds: +158 at BetOnline.ag
St. Louis owns the head-to-head, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, and they've been solid on the road at 29-26. The Cubs are missing reliever Brandon Birdsell, and at +158, the Cardinals offer clear value against a team that's been vulnerable in this matchup.
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Pick Missed
Final: St. Louis Cardinals 0, Chicago Cubs 3 • St. Louis Cardinals moneyline ML
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The Cardinals couldn't generate any offense, managing only a few hits and getting shut out. The Cubs' pitching was dominant from the start, and the +158 price proved to be a value trap. The loss highlights the risk of relying on head-to-head trends when the market has a clear read on the matchup.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS. The St. Louis Cardinals fell 0-3 to the Chicago Cubs, and our +158 moneyline pick never got off the ground.
The Cardinals managed just a handful of hits and couldn't scratch a run across. The Cubs' starter was in control from the first pitch, and the bullpen shut the door. Our pre-game read on the head-to-head history was solid, but the market had this one pegged. The Cubs were the better team on this night, and the +158 price was a trap for bettors chasing recent form.
This is a reminder that series history is a tiebreaker, not a primary indicator. When a team is priced as a big underdog, the books are telling you something. We took the bait, and it cost us. The takeaway: respect the market's read on starting pitching matchups, especially when the underdog's offense has been inconsistent.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes the St. Louis Cardinals on the moneyline at +158, and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it. This isn't a blind fade of a good team. It's a calculated spot where the market is overrating the Cubs' recent form and ignoring the head-to-head reality.
Look at the series history. The Cardinals have taken 4 of the last 5 meetings, including a 6-5 win on May 29 and a 5-1 blowout on May 31. That's not a fluke. St. Louis has the Cubs' number, and they're bringing a 61-60 record into Wrigley, with a respectable 29-26 mark on the road. The Cubs are 71-50 overall, but their home record is 35-24, and they're about to face a team that's beaten them consistently.
Now factor in the bullpen. Chicago is without reliever Brandon Birdsell, listed as out or doubtful. That's a crack in the armor, especially in a game where the total is set at 8 and could come down to late innings. The Cubs' ERA sits at 4.077, barely better than the Cardinals' 4.073, so this isn't a pitching mismatch. St. Louis scores 4.4 runs per game and allows 4.4, while Chicago scores 5.2 and allows 4.3. The gap isn't as wide as the odds suggest.
And the Cardinals are trending. They're 6-4 in their last 10, and they've won 4 of their last 5 overall. The Cubs have been hot too, winners of 8 of their last 10, but that's exactly when you fade the public darling. At +158, you're getting a team that's proven it can beat this opponent, at a price that's too generous.
BetOnline.ag has the best number at +158, a full 13 cents better than Bovada's +145. That's real value. The line hasn't moved much, which means sharp money hasn't hammered the Cubs, and that's a tell. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline and let the head-to-head dominance do the work.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Aug 13, 5:55 PM ET — lines may have moved
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