Knicks -6 vs Cavaliers: Same story, second verse

The God of Odds likes the New York Knicks -6 at -105, and Bovada is the place to hammer it.

Let's keep this simple. The Knicks just beat these same Cavaliers 115-104 on May 20. That's two days ago. Now they're at home again, where they're 30-10 on the season. Cleveland is 25-16 on the road, which is solid, but they're not covering spreads. The Cavs are 262-496 ATS overall, a putrid 35% cover rate. New York? 483-365, covering at 57%.

The numbers get uglier for Cleveland. The Knicks shoot 51.7% from the field, the Cavs 46.5%. New York's assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.11, Cleveland's is 1.42. That's a massive edge in ball security and shot-making. Yes, the Knicks are missing OG Anunoby, Miles McBride, and Landry Shamet. But Cleveland is also without Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson, and Craig Porter Jr. The depth hits are roughly equal, and the Knicks have the better system and home crowd.

The line hasn't moved off -6, which tells me the market is comfortable here. But I'm not. I see a team that just won by 11, shooting the lights out, playing defense at home, facing a Cavs squad that's 3-5 in their last 8 and 262-496 ATS. That's not a typo. They cover 35% of the time. The Knicks are the sharper side.

Bovada has the Knicks at -6 (-105), which is the best spread price available. LowVig is -106, BetOnline and MyBookie are -110. That's a nickel of value per dollar. Take the discount and lay the points. The Knicks win this game by double digits again.