WINNER - Dallas Stars spread +1.5
Final: Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
+0.49u
Profit
Ball Arena, Denver, CO
✅ Stars +1.5 Cash: The Goalie Gap Was the Whole Story
Godds Pick
Dallas Stars +1.5
Spread · Best odds: -205 at Bovada
Dallas is getting +1.5 at -205 despite a 2-2-0 record and a 1-1 moneyline mark, because the market respects their .953 save percentage and staunch 1.6 goals allowed per game. Colorado is on a 1-game losing streak and missing Logan O'Connor and Georgii Merkulov, while the Stars are without four key skaters. The moneyline moved from -140 to -135, showing sharp money on Dallas, and Bovada offers the best spread price at -205.
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Pick Cashed
Final: Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 • Dallas Stars spread +1.5
+0.49u
⚡ Why It Hit
Dallas allowed 1.6 goals per game and Colorado gave up 3, so the Stars didn't need to win outright. They took a 3-2 lead and never trailed, cashing +1.5 at -205. The line closed at +1.5, a neutral market signal, but the goaltending edge we identified held up.
Post-Game Analysis
✅ WIN: Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2. The Stars never trailed, and the +1.5 at -205 cashed exactly the way we drew it up.
Why it hit: Dallas got the goal and a half, but the real story is the same one we flagged pregame. The Stars allow 1.6 goals per game, and they held Colorado to 2. The Avalanche give up 3 per game, and Dallas put 3 on the board. That .953 save percentage we pointed to showed up again, while Colorado's .874 kept leaking. The Stars didn't need to win the game outright to cash this ticket. They just needed to stay within a goal and a half, and they did more than that.
The market never moved. We took +1.5 at -205, and it closed +1.5. That's a neutral signal: the number held, so we didn't beat the close, but we didn't get steamed off our side either. The price was fair, and the read on the goaltending gap was the difference. When a team allows 1.6 goals per game and the other gives up 3, the puck line is the smarter way to play it than the moneyline.
Takeaway: When the goaltending gap is this wide, buy the goal and a half instead of chasing the outright win.
The God of Odds delivers again.
All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes the Dallas Stars +1.5 at -205, and Bovada is the place to hammer it. Yes, Dallas is on a 1-game losing streak and has dropped two straight. But this is a spread bet, and the market is telling you something the standings don't. The Stars are getting a goal and a half, and the sharp money agrees.
Look at the goaltending. Dallas owns a .953 save percentage compared to Colorado's .874. That's a massive gap. The Stars allow just 1.6 goals per game, while the Avalanche give up 3.4. Even with Dallas scoring only 2.2 goals per game, their defense and goaltending keep them in every game. Colorado scores 5.2 per game, but that number is inflated by early-season variance and a 3-2-0 record that includes a 1-1 moneyline mark at home.
The Avalanche are on a 1-game losing streak and have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses over their last 10. They're also missing Logan O'Connor and Georgii Merkulov, two forwards who contribute to their depth. Dallas is without Matt Duchene, Harrison Scott, Luke Krys, and Cameron Hughes, which is a significant hit. But the line hasn't moved against Dallas. In fact, the moneyline shifted from -140 to -135, indicating sharp action on the Stars. That's a signal that the pros aren't worried about the injuries.
Dallas is 0-2 on the spread this season, but both games were decided by one goal. They've been competitive. Colorado's 1-1 ATS record is nothing special. The total sits at 6, and if this game stays low-scoring, the +1.5 becomes even more valuable. The Stars' defensive structure gives them a high floor.
Bovada is offering Dallas +1.5 at -205, which is the best price you'll find. BetOnline and BetUS don't even list a spread for this game, so Bovada is your only real option. But that -205 is still worth it. The implied probability is about 67%, and given the goaltending edge and the line movement, the true probability is higher. This is a moderate-confidence play, but it's a solid one. Take the Stars and the points.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Oct 13, 8:16 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche: FAQ
Who should I bet on in Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche?+
GODDS AI recommends Dallas Stars +1.5 with 3/5 confidence. Dallas Stars +1.5 at Colorado Avalanche: The God of Odds likes the Stars' goaltending edge and sharp line movement. Bet Dallas +1.5 at -205 on Bovada.
What are the odds for Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche?+
When the pick was made, the best odds for Dallas Stars +1.5 in Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche were -205 at Bovada. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks to find the best number.
What is the GODDS pick for Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche?+
GODDS picks Dallas Stars spread +1.5 at -205, the price its result is graded at, with 3/5 confidence.
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