Wild +1.5 at Tampa Bay. The Lightning are missing seven players and I'm not ignoring it.

The God of Odds likes the Minnesota Wild +1.5 at -185, and Bovada is the place to hammer it. Yes, the Wild are the underdog on the moneyline at +127, but this puck line is the smarter play. You're getting the better team with a cushion against a Tampa Bay roster that's falling apart.

Minnesota is 2-0-1 and giving up just 1.7 goals per game. That's the number that matters. They're scoring 3.0 per night, and their save percentage edge is massive: .933 versus Tampa Bay's .898. The Lightning are 2-1 and 2-0 at home, but look at who's not dressing. Victor Hedman, Yanni Gourde, Emil Lilleberg, Maxwell Crozier, Declan Carlile, Dominic James. That's seven names on the injury report, and it's gutting their blue line and center depth.

The Wild have their own issues. Brock Faber, Filip Gustavsson, and Marcus Foligno are out. Three key injuries is not nothing. But seven versus three is the gap that decides this game. Minnesota's last eight games read W-W-L-W-W-L-L-W. Tampa's read L-W-W-W-W-L-W-W. Both teams are volatile, but only one is missing half its defensive corps.

The total sits at 6 with no movement, and the spread hasn't budged either. That tells you the market hasn't fully priced in the Tampa injuries yet. When a team is missing Hedman and two other defensemen, the goals against tend to climb. Minnesota's 1.7 goals allowed per game is the stat I keep coming back to. They don't need to win outright. They just need to stay within a goal, and their defense is built for exactly that.

Bovada has the best number at +1.5 (-185). BetOnline and BetUS are offering the moneyline at +127 and +124, but that's a different bet. If you want the safety net, Bovada is the only book listed with the puck line. Take the cushion. Take the Wild.