LOSS - St Louis Blues spread +1.5
Final: St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
-1.00u
Profit
Ball Arena, Denver, CO
❌ Blues +1.5 Fails: No Line Move, No Chance
Godds Pick
St Louis Blues +1.5
Spread · Best odds: -103 at Bovada
St Louis is 1-0 on the road and 1-0-0 ATS, while Colorado is just 3-4 ATS and missing six key contributors. The moneyline moved from -290 to -285, signaling sharp support for the Blues. Bovada offers the best price on the Blues +1.5 at -103.
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Pick Missed
Final: St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6 • St Louis Blues spread +1.5
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The pick missed because Colorado's offense overwhelmed St Louis, turning a competitive game into a blowout. The line closed at +1.5, meaning no market movement supported our position. We were on the wrong side from the start.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS: St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6. Our pick was Blues +1.5 at -105, and it never had a chance.
Why it missed: The Avalanche turned a one-goal game into a rout, and the Blues' defensive structure collapsed in front of their own net. Colorado's pressure forced turnovers, and St Louis couldn't generate enough offense to stay within the number. The pre-game angle was sharp money on the Blues, but the market didn't move: we took +1.5 and it closed +1.5. That means we beat the close by zero. No edge was gained, and the result confirmed the market's initial read.
The takeaway: When the line doesn't move after you bet, you're not on the sharp side. Next time, wait for confirmation or pass. Honest losses build credibility, and this one was a clear miss.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes St Louis Blues +1.5 at -103, and Bovada is the place to hammer it.
Colorado opened as a -290 favorite and the number has already slipped to -285. That's not noise. That's sharp money stepping in on the Blues, and it lines up with everything else on the board. St Louis is 1-0 on the road, 1-0 on the moneyline, and a perfect 1-0-0 against the spread. The Avalanche are 3-4 ATS, covering at just 43 percent, and they're bleeding bodies.
Zachary L'Heureux, Logan O'Connor, Trent Miner, Georgii Merkulov, Nicolas Roy, and Artturi Lehkonen are all out or doubtful for Colorado. That's six names, including two centers and a winger who eats minutes. Meanwhile, St Louis is missing four of their own, but the Blues have the goaltending edge that matters most: a .1000 save percentage against Colorado's .871. In a one-game sample, that gap is the whole story.
Yes, it's early. One game in, the signals carry reduced reliability, and the Avalanche just hung eight goals on the board in their opener. But the Blues are riding a W-W-W-L-L-W stretch and scoring 4.0 goals per game of their own. They've already beaten Colorado once in the last three meetings, a 3-2 road win on April 6. The Avalanche own the head-to-head at 2-1, but the last two meetings were decided by one and two goals. This is not a blowout profile.
At +1.5, St Louis doesn't need to win. They need to lose by one or win outright. With six Avalanche contributors sidelined and the moneyline ticking toward the Blues, that's a bet worth making.
Bovada lists the Blues +1.5 at -103, the best price on the board. MyBookie is at -106, Everygame and BetOnline at -115. Take the extra cushion at Bovada and let the Avalanche's depleted lineup do the rest.

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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Oct 3, 7:45 PM ET — lines may have moved

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