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AC Milan -122 at Udinese, and the market's made its call.

GODDSGODDS Analysis

No pick

No GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →

The market

  • Favorite: AC Milan (moneyline -122)
  • Market probability (margin removed): Udinese 21%, Draw 26%, AC Milan 53%

Best prices when this analysis was written

Moneyline

Draw No Bet

AC Milan walks into Udinese on Sunday as the clear favorite, priced at -122 on the moneyline. The market gives Milan a 53% chance, Udinese 21%, and the draw 26% after margin removal. That's a three-way split with real skin on every side, which is exactly why this one's worth a closer look before you commit.

The case for Udinese is thin but not empty. They're at home, and their 1.3 goals per game suggests they can find the net. The problem is the other end, where they allow 2.3 per game. Their last 10 reads L-L-L-L-L-W-D-L-L-L, and they're 0-3 on the moneyline. The draw against Milan's form is the only thread worth pulling, and it's a short one.

Milan's argument is louder. They're 4-3-0 with a 2.0 goals per game average and just 1.0 allowed. Their last 10 shows W-D-W-D-D-W-W-W-T-W, and they're riding a 2-game win streak. On the moneyline they're 4-2. That's a side playing well on both ends, and the market's probability reflects it.

The line tells its own story. Udinese opened at +340 and drifted to +357, with sharp money landing on Milan. Best prices: Udinese +360 at BetAnything, the draw +273 at BetAnything, and Milan -122 at BetAnything. In Draw No Bet, Udinese sits at +237 and Milan at -301, both at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no call to make. If you've got a read, the best number is waiting for you.

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Odds Comparison

SportsbookMilanDrawUdineseDNB MilanDNB Udinese
Bovada+265
BetUS+265
BetOnline.ag+273
BetAnything+273
Pinnacle (sharp line) fair-112+283+373-249+249

DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.

Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.

Odds as of Oct 24, 9:56 AM ET. Lines may have moved.

AC Milan vs Udinese: FAQ

Who is favored in AC Milan vs Udinese?+

AC Milan: -122 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 53%.

What are the best odds for AC Milan vs Udinese?+

When this analysis was written: Udinese +360 at BetAnything, Draw +273 at BetAnything and AC Milan -122 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Udinese +237 at BetAnything and AC Milan -301 at BetAnything on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.

Does GODDS have a pick for AC Milan vs Udinese?+

No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.

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