Atalanta -118 at home against Frosinone. The market sees a coin flip.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Atalanta BC (moneyline -118)
- Market probability (margin removed): Atalanta BC 52%, Draw 23%, Frosinone 25%
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Atalanta BC -117 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Draw +317 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Frosinone +293 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Draw No Bet
- Atalanta BC -247 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Frosinone +199 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Atalanta BC hosts Frosinone on Sunday with the moneyline sitting at -118, and the market probability says this is closer to a toss-up than the price suggests. Atalanta is the favorite at -118, but the margin-removed probability gives them just 52%, with the draw at 23% and Frosinone at 25%. That's a thin gap for a home side, and bettors are getting a number that invites a second look.
The case for Atalanta starts with their recent form: a 2-game win streak and a record of 3-0-4. They're scoring 1.4 goals per game and allowing 1.6, so they've been involved in tight matches. Their moneyline record is 2-3, meaning they've been priced as favorites and failed to deliver more often than not. The home crowd and the short price are the main arguments here.
Frosinone arrives with a 4-1-2 record and a 1.9 goals per game average, which is the best scoring mark in this matchup. They've allowed 1.3 per game, better than Atalanta's 1.6. Their last 10 reads W-L-W-D-W-W-L-W-L-W, a solid run despite a 1-game losing streak. The moneyline record is 2-1, and they've been the more reliable side when priced as underdogs.
The line has moved from -157 to -118 on Atalanta, a clear sign of sharp money on Frosinone. The best price on Atalanta is -117 at Bovada, while the draw is +317 at BetAnything and Frosinone is +293 at BetAnything. In Draw No Bet, Atalanta is -247 at BetAnything and Frosinone is +199 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick on this game because no side reaches 70% in its model. The market sees a tight one, and the best numbers are there for whatever your read is.
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Odds Comparison
DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 24, 9:55 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Frosinone vs Atalanta BC: FAQ
Who is favored in Frosinone vs Atalanta BC?+
Atalanta BC: -118 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 52%.
What are the best odds for Frosinone vs Atalanta BC?+
When this analysis was written: Atalanta BC -117 at Bovada, Draw +317 at BetAnything and Frosinone +293 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Atalanta BC -247 at BetAnything and Frosinone +199 at BetAnything on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
Does GODDS have a pick for Frosinone vs Atalanta BC?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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