Frosinone +145 at Cagliari, and the Market Can't Agree

Frosinone walks into Cagliari as the favorite at +145, but the market's margin-free probability puts the visitors at just 39%. Cagliari sits at 35%, the draw at 26%. That's a three-way coin flip dressed up as a favorite. For bettors, this is the kind of game where the number matters more than the badge.

Cagliari's case starts with the price. +175 on the moneyline is the longest number on the board, and the home side has won two of its last three, including a W in its most recent match. The scoring profile is thin at 0.9 PPG, but the defense allows 1.5, and at that price, a low-scoring home grind is priced for a reason. Cagliari's moneyline record is 2-6, which tells you the market has burned this side before.

Frosinone's argument is the record. 6-2-2 overall, 4-1 on the moneyline, and 2.4 PPG scored. That's the best scoring rate in this matchup by a wide margin. The catch: Frosinone is on a 1-game losing streak and has allowed 1.4 per game, so the wins have come with leak. The last 10 reads W-W-D-W-L-W-D-W-W-L, a team that wins more than it loses but doesn't run away from anyone.

The line hasn't moved off the open. Frosinone is +145 at Bovada and BetUS, +140 at Everygame, and +149 at BetAnything and BetOnline.ag. Cagliari is +170 at Bovada and BetUS, +165 at Everygame, +175 at BetAnything and BetOnline.ag. The draw sits at +270 to +271. In Draw No Bet, Cagliari is +101 at BetAnything and BetOnline.ag, Frosinone -122 there and -127 at Bovada and BetUS.

GODDS has no pick here. No side clears 70% in the model, and this game doesn't deserve a forced call. If you have a read, BetAnything has the best price on every side of the moneyline and both sides of Draw No Bet.