Genoa at Lecce: Genoa +142, and the Market Is Split
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Genoa (moneyline +142)
- Market probability (margin removed): Lecce 29%, Draw 31%, Genoa 40%
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Lecce +237 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Draw +208 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Genoa +145 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Draw No Bet
- Lecce +128 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Genoa -155 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Genoa walks into Lecce as the favorite at +142, but the market isn't sold. The margin-removed probabilities sit at Genoa 40%, Draw 31%, Lecce 29%. That's a game priced closer to a coin flip than a clear mismatch, and it's why this one matters for anyone trying to read the Serie A board.
Lecce's case is simple: they're at home and coming off a win. The record is 3-0-6, and the last 10 reads L-L-W-L-L-W-L-L-W-L. They score 1.1 goals per game and allow 2.1, so the games have been open. The moneyline record is 2-7, which tells you they haven't been trusted by the market much this season. But at +237, the price reflects a lot of that doubt.
Genoa's case is the schedule and the response. They're 3-1-5, they've lost three straight, and they score just 0.9 goals per game while allowing 1.4. The last 10 is W-W-L-W-L-D-L-L-L-W. The moneyline record is 1-2. The argument for Genoa is that the market still makes them the favorite despite the skid, and the line movement backs that up.
The number has moved. Lecce opened at +175 and drifted to +230, which is sharp money on Genoa. The best price on Lecce is +237 at BetAnything. The draw is +208 at BetAnything. Genoa's best price is +145 at Bovada. In Draw No Bet, Lecce is +128 at BetAnything and Genoa is -155 at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.
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Odds Comparison
DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 31, 11:41 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Genoa vs Lecce: FAQ
Who is favored in Genoa vs Lecce?+
Genoa: +142 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 40%.
What are the best odds for Genoa vs Lecce?+
When this analysis was written: Lecce +237 at BetAnything, Draw +208 at BetAnything and Genoa +145 at Bovada on the moneyline; Lecce +128 at BetAnything and Genoa -155 at Bovada on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
Does GODDS have a pick for Genoa vs Lecce?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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