Sevilla -109 against Alavés, and the market is split on the rest.

Sevilla host Alavés on Friday with the moneyline sitting at -109 for the home side. The market, with the margin removed, gives Sevilla a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Alavés 23%. That's a favorite priced, not a favorite trusted. For bettors, this is a game where the number tells you more than the badge.

Sevilla's case is built on form and a short price. They're 5-2-4, on a 2-game win streak, and have won two of their last three. They score 1.5 PPG and allow 1.7, so they're not watertight, but they've been the better side in the results column. Their moneyline record is 5-3, meaning they've delivered for backers more often than not.

Alavés arrive 3-3-5 with a 1-game win streak and a 1.4 PPG scoring rate against 1.5 allowed. The headline is the moneyline record: 1-6. They've been a poor bet to win outright, but their last 10 reads D-L-L-D-L-L-W-W-D-W, which shows a team that's hard to put away and has found two wins in its last four. At +326, the price reflects the outright risk, not the draw threat.

The line has moved from +113 to -109 on Sevilla, sharp money on the home side. Best prices: Sevilla -105 at BetOnline.ag, the draw +247 at BetOnline.ag, Alavés +326 at BetOnline.ag. Draw No Bet: Sevilla -257 at BetOnline.ag, Alavés +203 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at BetOnline.ag.