Real Madrid 2, Barcelona 1: the favorite falls

Sunday's Clasico is the biggest fixture on the La Liga calendar, and the market has Barcelona as the favorite at -160. With the margin stripped out, the market sits at Barcelona 59%, Draw 17%, Real Madrid 25%. That's a price built on a perfect record, not a cushion. Barcelona is 9-0-0 and has won all nine. Real Madrid is 7-0-2 and arrives on a three-game win streak.

Barcelona's case is the most complete in Spain. Nine games, nine wins, 4.3 goals per game scored and 1.0 allowed. The last ten reads W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W, and the moneyline record is 7-1. A team scoring four-plus a game at home doesn't need much to break a match open, and the market has priced that run into the favorite's number all season.

Real Madrid's case is that it doesn't lose. Two draws, no defeats, 2.6 goals per game scored and the same 1.0 allowed as Barcelona. The last ten is W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-W-W, and the moneyline record is 6-1. This is a side that keeps matches close and takes its points. Against a Barcelona team that hasn't dropped a result, that's the argument for the underdog price.

The line has moved. Barcelona opened -186 and sits at -160, with sharp money on Real Madrid. Best prices: Barcelona -153 at BetOnline.ag, the draw +488 at BetOnline.ag, Real Madrid +285 at BetUS. Draw No Bet: Barcelona -269 at BetOnline.ag, Real Madrid +219 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model, so there's no call to make. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board and let the market pay you for it.