Barcelona -160 against Real Madrid, and the line is already slipping.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Barcelona (moneyline -160)
- Market probability (margin removed): Barcelona 59%, Draw 17%, Real Madrid 25%
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Barcelona -153 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Draw +488 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Real Madrid +285 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
Draw No Bet
- Barcelona -269 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Real Madrid +219 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Sunday's Clasico is the biggest fixture on the La Liga calendar, and the market has Barcelona as the favorite at -160. With the margin stripped out, the market sits at Barcelona 59%, Draw 17%, Real Madrid 25%. That's a price built on a perfect record, not a cushion. Barcelona is 9-0-0 and has won all nine. Real Madrid is 7-0-2 and arrives on a three-game win streak.
Barcelona's case is the most complete in Spain. Nine games, nine wins, 4.3 goals per game scored and 1.0 allowed. The last ten reads W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W, and the moneyline record is 7-1. A team scoring four-plus a game at home doesn't need much to break a match open, and the market has priced that run into the favorite's number all season.
Real Madrid's case is that it doesn't lose. Two draws, no defeats, 2.6 goals per game scored and the same 1.0 allowed as Barcelona. The last ten is W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-W-W, and the moneyline record is 6-1. This is a side that keeps matches close and takes its points. Against a Barcelona team that hasn't dropped a result, that's the argument for the underdog price.
The line has moved. Barcelona opened -186 and sits at -160, with sharp money on Real Madrid. Best prices: Barcelona -153 at BetOnline.ag, the draw +488 at BetOnline.ag, Real Madrid +285 at BetUS. Draw No Bet: Barcelona -269 at BetOnline.ag, Real Madrid +219 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model, so there's no call to make. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board and let the market pay you for it.
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Odds Comparison
DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 24, 9:55 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona: FAQ
Who is favored in Real Madrid vs Barcelona?+
Barcelona: -160 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 59%.
What are the best odds for Real Madrid vs Barcelona?+
When this analysis was written: Barcelona -153 at BetOnline.ag, Draw +488 at BetOnline.ag and Real Madrid +285 at BetUS on the moneyline; Barcelona -269 at BetOnline.ag and Real Madrid +219 at BetOnline.ag on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
Does GODDS have a pick for Real Madrid vs Barcelona?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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