Athletics +147 at Phillies: fade the favorite with four key injuries

The God of Odds likes the Athletics moneyline at +151 and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

Philadelphia is 16-20 and just 9-10 at home. Their record is worse than Oakland's 18-17 mark. The Phillies are banged up with four key players out or doubtful: Christian McGowan, Daniel Robert, Aidan Miller, and Keaton Anthony. That's a lot of depth to be missing against a team that's actually outscoring them on the season (Oakland 4.3 PPG vs Philly 3.9 PPG).

Yes, the Phillies won 9-1 yesterday. But the market reaction tells a different story. The moneyline opened at -175 and has been steamed down to -167. That's sharp money coming in on the Athletics. When the line moves against a team that just won 9-1, you pay attention. Oakland's .724 OPS is significantly better than Philly's .681. The A's cover at a 38% clip ATS while the Phillies cover at an abysmal 13%.

LowVig is offering the best price on the Athletics at +151. That's a full eight cents better than Bovada's +141. The line movement and the injury situation create a perfect storm for the underdog. At 4/5 confidence, this is a strong play. The public will be all over Philadelphia after that blowout win. Let them. We'll take the value on the team that's actually playing better baseball right now.