Braves +101 at Red Sox: Fading the public and the line movement

The God of Odds likes the Atlanta Braves on the moneyline at +101 and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it.

Let's get one thing straight. The Boston Red Sox are 27-27 and somehow favored here. Meanwhile the Braves are 37-18 with a 20-8 road record. That's not a fluke. Atlanta scores 5.3 runs per game and allows just 3.4. Their ERA is 3.09. Boston's is 4.45. The numbers are screaming at you.

Now look at the head to head. These two just played four games in Atlanta. The Braves won three of them. They outscored Boston 8-1 in the most recent meeting. That's not ancient history. That was last week.

And Boston is banged up. Brendan Rodgers and Tim Elko are both out or doubtful. That's their second baseman and first baseman. Two infield holes against a Braves team that covers at an 81% clip ATS. The market moved the moneyline from 113 to -111. Sharp money is on Boston. That's exactly when you fade the favorite and grab plus money on the better team.

BetOnline.ag has the Braves at +101. That's the best price available. MyBookie and Bovada are offering -101 and -104 respectively. Why take worse odds when the best is right there?

The Braves are 6-4 in their last 10. They've won three of four against this exact opponent. They have the pitching edge, the offensive edge, and the healthier lineup. At plus money, this is a no brainer. Confidence 4 out of 5.

Take Atlanta and the plus money. The books are begging you to bet Boston. Don't fall for it.