Baltimore Orioles +122 at Boston Red Sox. Fading the public on a banged-up favorite.

The God of Odds likes the Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline at +122, and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it.

Boston is missing two key position players: Brendan Rodgers and Tim Elko are both out or doubtful. That's a significant chunk of their lineup against an Orioles team that just put up a 10-spot on them two weeks ago. The Red Sox are 20-11 at home, but that record was built with a healthier roster. Now the books are overcorrecting, hanging Boston as -135 favorites. That's a number we can fade.

Baltimore comes in with a 28-32 record, but their recent form tells a different story. They're 3-2 in their last five and 6-4 in their last ten, with wins in three of their last four. The offense is scoring 4.6 runs per game, nearly identical to Boston's 4.7. The difference? Baltimore is getting plus money against a compromised opponent.

Look at the head-to-head: Baltimore won 10-3 on April 24, then lost two close games by 3 and 5 runs. This isn't a mismatch. The Orioles can hang with Boston, especially when the Red Sox are shorthanded.

The best moneyline price for Baltimore is +122 at BetOnline.ag. Bovada has them at +111, so you're leaving money on the table elsewhere. Lock in the higher number.

At 3/5 confidence, this is a solid play. The market is sleeping on Baltimore's recent form and Boston's injuries. We're not.