Dodgers -295 vs Reds: The sharp money is wrong, LA rolls

The God of Odds likes the Los Angeles Dodgers on the moneyline at -295, and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it. Don't let the sharp money scare you off. The line moved from -300 to -295, but that's just noise. This is a mismatch on the mound and at the plate, and the Dodgers are the play.

The Reds are rolling into this one with a 4.67 ERA, while the Dodgers counter with a 3.70. That's nearly a full run of difference, and it shows up in the scoring: LA puts up 4.9 per game while allowing 3.9. Cincinnati scores 4.2 but gives up 5.0. The Dodgers are 87-57 overall, and they've won 8 of their last 10. The Reds? They're 69-75 and just 33-37 on the road. They're also missing Alex Young and Carson Spiers, two arms they needed against this lineup.

The Reds have covered the spread at a 54% clip this season, but that's a distraction. We're on the moneyline, and the Dodgers win outright. Their moneyline record is 24-24, but that's mostly from when they were priced closer to even. As a favorite of this magnitude, they cash at a 67% rate historically. The Reds' recent wins have come against the Angels, not this kind of competition.

Now, the price. BetOnline.ag has the best number on the Dodgers at -295. LowVig and BetUS are also at -295, but BetOnline has the better payout on the other side if you want to hedge. MyBookie is juiced to -310, so avoid that. Take the -295 at BetOnline and move on.

This is a 4 out of 5 confidence play. The Dodgers are the better team, they're at home, and they have the pitching edge. The Reds are banged up and outclassed. Back the chalk and collect.