Astros +133 at Mets: The market is fading the wrong team tonight

The God of Odds likes the Houston Astros on the moneyline at +133, and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it. The Mets are getting all the sharp money, with their line moving from -136 to -147, but that's a trap. Houston's the better team in this spot, and the price is too good to pass up.

The Astros come in with a winning record at 68-67, and they've been even better on the road at 35-32. Their moneyline record is a solid 22-16, meaning they win outright more often than the odds suggest. Meanwhile, the Mets are a mess at 60-75, and they're just 22-33 on the moneyline. New York's recent form is a disaster: they've lost 4 of their last 5, and their home record is below .500 at 31-38.

Then there's the injury factor. The Mets are missing Robert Stock, Grae Kessinger, and Mike Tauchman. That's a key reliever, a third baseman, and an outfielder. Their ERA is already worse than Houston's, 4.63 to 4.10, and now they're shorthanded. The Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game, and they just beat the Mets 3-1 yesterday. This is a team that knows how to win on the road.

Now, the edge. The best price on the Astros is +133 at BetOnline.ag. Other books are offering +132 or +130, but BetOnline gives you the most bang for your buck. Don't settle for less when the sharp play is clear. The Mets' line movement is a classic overreaction to public money, but the smart money is on Houston to pull off the upset.

Confidence is moderate at 3/5, but that's because the Mets have some talent. Still, the value is undeniable. Take the Astros at +133 and let the Mets' injuries and inconsistency do the rest.