LOSS - New York Yankees moneyline
Final: Minnesota Twins 11, New York Yankees 4
-1.00u
Profit
❌ Yankees -125 Blown Out: Twins Score 11, Our Pick Fails
Godds Pick
New York Yankees ML
Moneyline · Best odds: -125 at BetUS
The Yankees have a superior ERA (3.39 vs 4.82) and the Twins are missing three key players including a starting pitcher. Despite recent struggles, New York's home record and pitching edge make them the sharp play at -125.
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Pick Missed
Final: Minnesota Twins 11, New York Yankees 4 • New York Yankees moneyline ML
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The Yankees' pitching staff collapsed, allowing 11 runs despite a season-long 3.39 ERA. The Twins' offense, which we wrote off, torched them for 11 runs. The value at -125 evaporated when the starter failed to go deep.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS: Twins 11, Yankees 4. The Yankees got steamrolled at home, and our -125 moneyline pick never stood a chance.
Why it missed: The starting pitching matchup we banked on never materialized. The Yankees' starter got knocked out early, and the bullpen imploded. Meanwhile, the Twins' offense, which we dismissed as a mess, exploded for 11 runs. The 1.3 run per game gap in runs allowed we highlighted? It meant nothing tonight. New York gave up 11, not 3.9. The value at -125 looked sharp on paper, but the Yankees laid an egg.
The takeaway: Never trust a heavy favorite with a shaky bullpen, especially when the underdog has proven they can score in bunches.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes New York Yankees on the moneyline at -125 and BetUS is the place to hammer it. The Twins are a mess right now and the price is still too low.
Minnesota comes into this game with a 4.82 ERA, nearly a full run and a half worse than the Yankees' 3.39 mark. That's a massive gap between two teams with similar scoring averages (Yankees 4.8 PPG, Twins 4.9 PPG). The difference is what they allow. New York gives up only 3.9 per game while the Twins bleed 5.2. That's a 1.3 run swing every night.
The Twins are also dealing with three key injuries. Walker Jenkins, Cory Lewis, and Matt Canterino are all out or doubtful. Lewis and Canterino are pitchers on a staff that already can't stop anyone. The Yankees have a 49-39 record and a home mark of 23-19. They've been cold lately with a 1-5 stretch in their last 5, but the underlying numbers and the opponent's situation create a buy-low spot.
Line movement has been flat, which tells me the books aren't adjusting to the injury news fast enough. The consensus line is -1.5 on the spread, but we're playing the moneyline here because baseball is volatile and we want the outright win without needing a blowout.
BetUS has the best price at -125. Everyone else is -126 or worse, with MyBookie juicing it to -135. That's a 10 cent difference. You're leaving money on the table if you shop anywhere else. Lock in the Yankees at -125 and let the better pitching staff do the work.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Jul 5, 7:40 AM ET — lines may have moved
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