LOSS - New York Yankees moneyline
Final: New York Yankees 3, New York Mets 6
-1.00u
Profit
❌ Yankees Moneyline Fails at -116: Bullpen Implosion Costs Us
Godds Pick
New York Yankees ML
Moneyline · Best odds: -116 at BetOnline.ag
The Yankees have a 28-17 record and a 3.19 ERA compared to the Mets' 18-26 and 3.78 ERA. The Mets are missing six key players, including Clay Holmes and Mike Tauchman. New York won yesterday 5-2 and should roll again.
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Pick Missed
Final: New York Yankees 3, New York Mets 6 • New York Yankees moneyline ML
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The Yankees lost because their bullpen blew up in the 7th inning, allowing 4 runs. The Mets outperformed their season metrics, and the Yankees failed to execute. The pick was based on strong data, but baseball variance caught up.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS: New York Yankees 3, New York Mets 6.
Our 4/5 confidence play on the Yankees moneyline at -116 looked solid on paper. The Yankees had the better record, better ERA, and were road favorites. But baseball is a game of inches and the Mets showed up at home. New York's bullpen imploded in the 7th inning, allowing 4 runs. That's the kind of thing that kills a sharp bet. The advanced numbers we cited were real, but they don't account for a bad day at the office.
We trusted the data and the market lag, but the Mets outperformed their metrics in this one. It happens. The Yankees' 3.19 ERA didn't show up, and the Mets' 3.78 ERA looked like Cy Young. Sometimes the baseball gods laugh at your models.
The takeaway: Don't overreact. The process was sound, the value was there. One loss doesn't break the system.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes the New York Yankees moneyline at -116 and BetUS is the place to hammer it. This is a 4/5 confidence play because the numbers are screaming one way and the market hasn't caught up.
The Yankees are 28-17 this season. That's a .622 winning percentage. The Mets are 18-26, which is .409. On the road, New York is 14-11. At home, the Mets are 9-13. These are not close teams.
Look at the advanced numbers. The Yankees have a 3.19 ERA. The Mets are at 3.78. That's a half-run advantage every game. On offense, New York posts a .763 OPS while the Mets manage just .638. That's a massive gap. The Yankees score 5.1 runs per game and allow 3.5. The Mets score 3.7 and allow 4.2. Every category favors the away team.
Injuries are crushing the Mets. They have six players listed as out or doubtful: Robert Stock, Clay Holmes, Mike Tauchman (listed twice), and Grae Kessinger. That's a depleted roster. The Yankees have no such issues.
Yesterday these teams played and the Yankees won 5-2. The head-to-head is 1-0 in favor of New York. Expect more of the same today.
The best moneyline price for the Yankees is -116 at BetUS. Other books have them at -118 or -120. Why take worse odds? BetUS gives you the best number. That's a small edge but it adds up over a season.
This is a simple play. The better team, with the better pitcher, facing a banged-up opponent. The Yankees are the sharp side and the value is clear.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of May 16, 5:57 PM ET — lines may have moved
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