Padres +113 vs Mets: The public is sleeping on San Diego again

The God of Odds likes the San Diego Padres on the moneyline at +113, and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it. This is a classic dog spot: a better team getting plus money against a struggling opponent. The Mets are 55-69 for a reason, and their 27-34 home record is a dumpster fire.

San Diego is 66-58 overall and just went 7-3 in their last 10 games. They're averaging 4.3 runs per game while allowing 4.3, but the key is they're winning games. The Mets have lost 3 of their last 4 and are 21-31 on the moneyline this season. That's a 40% win rate, and the books still have them as favorites? Give me a break.

Yes, the Padres are missing Matt Waldron and Yu Darvish, but the Mets are missing three guys themselves: Mike Tauchman, Robert Stock, and Grae Kessinger. Injuries cut both ways, and the Padres' bats have been hot. They've covered at a 53% clip against the spread, while the Mets cover at just 38%. That's a massive gap in value.

The line hasn't moved, which tells me the public is sleeping on San Diego. The Mets are a bad baseball team with a worse home record, and they're laying -125? No thanks. I'll take the better team at plus money every time.

LowVig.ag has the best price on the Padres at +113. BetOnline and Bovada are both at +101 or worse. If you're betting the Mets, you're paying a premium for a team that loses more than it wins. The Padres are the sharp side, and the value is undeniable. Take San Diego and let the Mets' misery continue.