Miami Marlins -120 vs San Francisco Giants: Home cooking at its finest

The God of Odds likes the Miami Marlins on the moneyline at -116 and Bovada is the place to hammer it.

Miami sits at 37-38 overall but they're a different animal at home. The Marlins are 23-16 at loanDepot park and they're catching a Giants team that's 31-43 on the year with a 17-23 road mark. San Francisco has been a mess on the road and they're giving up 4.9 runs per game. That's a full half-run more than Miami's 4.4 allowed.

The Marlins have been hot lately too. They've won 7 of their last 10 including a stretch of five straight wins. Meanwhile the Giants have dropped 5 of their last 10 and they just can't get consistent results. San Francisco's moneyline record is 395-639 which tells you they lose outright more often than not.

Injuries matter here. Miami is missing reliever Jesus Tinoco but that's a bullpen arm. The bigger blow is for San Francisco: third baseman Parks Harber is out. That's a key bat and defensive piece missing from their lineup. The Giants already struggle to score at 4.2 runs per game and now they're down a starter.

Head to head the Marlins took one of three in San Francisco back in April but that was on the road. At home this is a different matchup. Miami's ERA sits at 4.14 while the Giants check in at 4.49. That's a clear edge for the home team.

Now for the price. You can get Miami at -116 at Bovada. That's the best number on the board. MyBookie is at -122 and LowVig and BetOnline are at -120. Don't pay extra. Take the -116 and lock in the favorite with the better home record, better recent form, and the injury advantage.

This is a 3 out of 5 confidence play. Solid, not a slam dunk, but the data points in one direction. Back the Marlins at home.