Rockies +120 vs Nationals: Fade the banged-up road favorite

The God of Odds likes the Colorado Rockies moneyline at +120 and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it.

The Nationals roll into Coors Field with a 51-51 record, but their recent form is shaky. They are 4-6 in their last 10 and have lost 4 of their last 5. Worse, they are banged up. Four pitchers are out or doubtful: Joan Adon, Tyler Stuart, Jarlin Susana, and Travis Sykora. That is a massive hit to a staff that already owns a 4.84 ERA. On the road, Washington is 31-20, but those numbers are inflated by early season performance. The market is still pricing them as the better team, but the injuries shift the balance.

Colorado sits at 41-62, but their home record is 24-28 and they just split the last two games of this series, winning 8-7 on Wednesday. They score 4.8 runs per game and allow 5.7, but against a depleted Nationals bullpen, the offense should feast. The Rockies are 9-20 on the moneyline overall, but that includes a brutal road schedule. At home, they are a different animal. Their ERA is 5.49, but Washington's is not much better at 4.84, and that number climbs without their key arms.

The line opened with the Rockies around +115 and has moved to +120 at LowVig.ag. That is sharp money coming in on the dog. The public is likely on the Nationals, but the books are not moving the line toward them. That tells you everything. At BetOnline.ag and BetUS, you can also get +120, but LowVig has the best price on the underdog. Do not overthink this. The Nationals are in poor form, missing four pitchers, and the Rockies have the home field and the momentum from Wednesday's win. Grab the plus money and fade the favorite.