Yankees +104 vs Red Sox: Boston's banged up and the price is too juicy to pass

The God of Odds likes the New York Yankees on the moneyline at +104, and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it. Boston comes into the Bronx with a better record on the surface, but the numbers say this line is backwards. The Yankees are 76-58 overall, 35-30 at home, and they're sending a starter with a 3.22 ERA to the mound. Boston counters with a 4.16 ERA, and they're missing three key pieces: Tyler Schweitzer, Tim Elko, and Mason Adams. That's a bullpen anchor, a first baseman, and a rotation arm. The Red Sox are limping, and the market hasn't fully adjusted.

New York's recent form is better than the last three head-to-head losses suggest. They've won 7 of their last 10, and they're scoring 4.5 runs per game while allowing just 3.7. Boston scores a tick more at 4.8, but they give up 4.5. That's a coin flip on the road, and the Yankees have the better pitching edge. The Red Sox are 30-36 away from Fenway, and their moneyline record on the road is just 29-26. The Yankees have a 47-36 moneyline record overall. This is a home dog with a superior ERA and a healthier roster. The price should be closer to pick 'em, but we're getting plus money.

The head-to-head sweep in July stings, but that was a different Boston team. Now they're dealing with injuries, and the Yankees are getting 104 cents on the dollar. BetOnline.ag has the best number at +104, while Bovada is at -101. That's a five-cent difference on the same bet. Take the value. The Yankees are the better team on paper, and the market is overvaluing Boston's recent head-to-head success. This is a 4 out of 5 confidence play. The Red Sox are banged up, the Yankees are at home, and the plus money is a gift. Hammer it.